BEST PICTURE
What a year for the movies. I think this year in particular has been fantastic. Sure there have been some duds and disappointments, however it has been a year where there have been some amazing comebacks and some old favorites who never disappoint. And also thanks to IRON MAN, THE DARK KNIGHT, and others, it is a year where the movie industry actually made money. When it comes time to discuss the years best picture, a few of my favorite surely will be left out by Oscar. Call me crazy but I think CLOVERFIELD was a terrifying and effective film which should be recognized .. it won't be. Also THE WRESTLER, a critical favorite, is also my favorite of the year. Sadly it won't be nominated her either. The Oscars love their epic films and luckily they have one this year in: THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON. I think it is a completely overrated film (although it has its shining moments) - Oscar will eat it up. I predict it will lead with the most nominations of the show. However, if a film is to beat that in the nomination tally it will be SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. It's this years JUNO, a rather independent film with huge audiences and huge critical support (and early awards support). THE DARK KNIGHT was the highest grossing of the year, and Oscar will surely enrage thousands of Dark Knight groupies if it fails to nominate the film (it will actually make me happy, because the film was good, and Heath was great .. but best picture? No). I think this year, with dropping viewing numbers for the Oscars, DARK KNIGHT, will be nominated. The Academy will want to please its audience this year -- with the nominations, not necessarily the list of winners. The Academy also loves a social statement, and with Prop 8 failing, I think MILK will earn (rightfully) a nomination, although its steam is slowly and sadly dying. If there is something to sneak in surprisingly into the top 5, expect WALL-E. Yes, its an animated film, but it is fantastic. Much better than Beauty and the Beast, which received a best picture nomination. It could be the film to push out FROST/NIXON from its perceived slot. Other movies with a shot include THE READER, DOUBT, and REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. I think DOUBT will get its fair share of acting nominations, and it probably should be nominated for best picture but it will miss out. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD really has had no steam this season at all - until the late push and success from Kate Winslet. I predict she may be the lone nominee from the film in all catagories. It's been a great year .. and here are the 5 films I predict Oscar will award with nominations:
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE - the indie fav
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON - the academy flick
MILK - the social statement
FROST/NIXON - the respected choice
THE DARK KNIGHT - the audience fav
BEST ACTOR
What a year for actors!! It is a foregone conclusion that the award will probably go to either veteran success SEAN PENN or comeback kid MICKEY ROURKE. However, its not that easy. The Academy works like this: each member ranks their favorite 5 performances of the year from 1 - 5. Now lets say there is a camp that wants Rourke to win (there is) and there is a camp that wants Penn to win (there is). Now say they choose their favorite as number 1, and the competition as number 5. Then there is a third contender who is consistently getting #2's .. that contender will win. Its sick to think of it this way, but just like any other competition or game - this stuff happens. So who is that third contender? People have been touting FRANK LANGELLA for his work as Richard Nixon since the year began, and he is sure to be nominated but I don't think he stands a chance to steal the award. The 3rd contender I speak of will be CLINT EASTWOOD. He hasn't received tons of critical acclaim, but the Oscars love him. They practically nominate him for taking a shit in their lobby. And with all of his reaping love, he could be the one to upset ROURKE and PENN. Honestly it would be a disaster. I think the award belongs to MICKEY ROURKE. But alas, I don't vote. Now as the for the 5th nominee who sadly stands no chance, its down to a few contenders. DUSTIN HOFFMAN stands a slim chance, but his film is a comedy and hasn't recieved much hype, plus he lost the Golden Globe to COLIN FARREL from In Bruges. I don't think he is respected enough at this time from the Academy. LEONARDO DICAPRIO has a rough score with Oscar, he's been snubbed a lot, and has never won. And shockingly his performance in Rev. Road has been nominated for next to nothing, so I doubt Oscar will reward him. BENECIO DEL TORO's film CHE has failed to impress as predicted. JOSH BROLIN has had a fantastic year with W and MILK, but they will more likely nominate him for his supporting role then his turn as George Bush here. That leaves us with two: RICHARD JENKINS and BRAD PITT. Jenkins is a fine actor who was also seen this year in Burn After Reading, Brad also. Both are great in their films, so it all comes down to what movie their in. I think PITT will slide in slightly over Jenkins, because of the love for the film he is the title role in. I may be wrong, but here are my predicted 5:
MICKEY ROURKE : The Wrestler - The comeback kid
SEAN PENN : Milk - The Respected Thespian
FRANK LANGELLA : Frost/Nixon - The Old Pro
BRAD PITT : Benjamin Button - The Pretty Face
CLINT EASTWOOD : Gran Torino - The Spoiler
BEST ACTRESS
Its been a fantastic year for the ladies. The biggest question of the night as far as the ladies are concerned, and that is KATE WINSLET. Will she be nominated twice? Will she be nominated for lead twice? (Because he role in THE READER is surely a lead and not supporting) Will she only get one nod? Or will she be nominated twice, which may lead to no award at all (attention Julianne Moore!). The locks in this catagory don't include WINSLET just yet. There are only 2 in fact. MERYL STREEP in DOUBT is a surefire nominee, isn't she always. And ANNE HATHAWAY, with her dramatic career changing performance, is surely on the shortlist. That leaves us with quite a few other women. There's 2 K(C)ate's. WINSLET of course, and CATE BLANCHETT who may sneak in if there is huge love and support for CURIOUS CASE. (Which to me would be a shame because her performance is surely not one of the best). MICHELLE WILLIAMS has recently won a few critical lauds for her performance in WENDY AND LUCY. Would the Academy want to award her along with Heath, her ex husband? SALLY HAWKINS has probably won the most awards of the year for HAPPY GO LUCKY, however it is the performance that has split critics and audiences alike. You either hear that people Love her character Poppy, or hate it. Which could lead to a snub for her, the SAGS didn't nominate her. They instead chose to nominate the other indie queen of the year, MELISSA LEO for Frozen River. She is in a good place to become the spoiler in this race and I certainly wouldn't count her out. And then there's ANGELINA JOLIE (one of my favorites). She has an interesting relationship with the Academy. She won an Oscar for Girl, Interrupted, and then she has been snubbed ever since. Last years snub for A MIGHTY HEART was horrific, as she certainly should have been nominated. Some believe she will be snubbed again this year, possibly by Blanchett who wrongly took her spot last year for the second rate Elizabeth sequel. I do think ANGELINA will make it in though, as her performance was fantastic, and a career best. However if one woman is to be snubbed, sadly it will be her. But as it stands now, I am confidant these are the 5 choices:
ANNE HATHAWAY : Rachel Getting Married - The Up-and-Comer
KATE WINSLET : Revolutionary Road - The Double Nominee
MERYL STREEP : Doubt - The Obvious choice
SALLY HAWKINS : Happy Go Lucky - The Indie Darling
ANGELINA JOLIE : Changeling - The Long Shot
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Also a great year for the supporting male. However, this is almost pointless to even predict the nominees because its obviously HEATH LEDGERS year to win, sadly he won't be in attendance. He has won 99% of the pre-cursors and he will win the oscar. Case closed. I think the love for SLUMDOG will push DEV PATEL into a nomination (although he is said to be the lead of the film). RALPH FIENNES has been in like 5 movies this year, could he swing a nomination for a great years work? Oddly TOM CRUISE was nominated by the Golden Globes for his brief (and unfunny) performance in TROPIC THUNDER, he will be overshadowed by ROBERT DOWNEY JR, who is just as a lock for a nomination as Ledger. He had a fantastic year as well with his role as a black man, and IRON MAN of course. BRAD PITT was even better in BURN AFTER READING, but I just don't see him getting 2 nominations, however if they choose to nominate RICHARD JENKINS over him in lead, he may get a nod here as a makeup. EDDIE MARSAN got some critical laudes for HAPPY GO LUCKY but that seems to be Sally's movie. BILL IRWIN was spectacular in RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, but has been overlooked. Then there's the MILK boys: JOSH BROLIN, JAMES FRANCO, and EMILE HIRSCH. All three gave great performances but sadly HIRSCH (who was my favorite of the three) has gotten little to no attention. FRANCO got some nominations early on, but lost all buzz to BROLIN who has had a good couple of years, without a nomination. Expect the DOUBT love to flow with PHILLIP SEYMORE HOFFMAN getting another nomination. And lastly the major spoiler is MICHAEL SHANNON who reportedly gives the best performance in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, may be able to sneak in and give the film 2 acting nominations. More than likely here will be your nominees, who's award is being nominated because the win is locked:
HEATH LEDGER : The Dark Knight - The Winner
DEV PATEL : Slumdog Millionaire - The Category Fraud
JOSH BROLIN : Milk - The "You Had A Good Year" Choice
PHILLIP SEYMORE HOFFMAN : Doubt - The "Any other year would have won" candidate
ROBERT DOWNEY JR : Tropic Thunder - The Lone Comedian
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This could be the most exciting and unexpected category of them, simply because there are so many choices. Okay lets talk locks first. PENELOPE CRUZ has shockingly stayed on every pre-cursor, and won quite a bunch of awards for VICKY CHRISTINA BARCELONA, which was released early in the year. Woody Allen has a good track record with actresses and she is a frontrunner for the win. KATE WINSLET will surely be nominated for THE READER (unless they decide to nominate her in the right category which is lead actress), and may very well win (unless she cancels herself out with 2 nods). The DOUBT girls are in a prime spot to finish out the foursome of acting nominees. VIOLA DAVIS, despite one scene, has received the most love from the awards contenders so far this year. However AMY ADAMS has received lots of big nominations, and is liked by the academy in the past (Junebug and she sang last year from Enchanted). Will the BENJAMIN BUTTON love carry TARAJI P HENSON to a nomination? Time will only tell. It will also be an interesting story because, she too (like Adams), has performed a song at the Oscars. She was a part of the winning performance from Hustle and Flow (Its Hard out Here for a Pimp) which should never have beaten Dolly Parton, but thats neither here nor there. Then there's the RACHEL GETTING MARRIED girls: ROSEMARIE DEWITT and DEBRA WINGER. Dewitt has been given lots of love this season, and Debra is a respected Academy favorite who has made a return to the screen, and a shockingly good one. MARISA TOMEI, a previous winner, has never been better than she is in THE WRESTLER, playing a stripper with a heart of gold, which Oscars love. Also she has won the most precursor awards, yet doesn't have the hype oddly. KATHY BATES has gotten no love for Revolutionary Road, which is surprising, dont expect Oscar to suddenly give it to her. And if SLUMDOG becomes a huge academy favorite, it wouldnt be a huge shock for FRIEDA PINTO to sneak in, although doubtful. In the end I think 1 DOUBT girl will be left out (sadly) and that is more than likely going to be ADAMS. Here are my final 5 choices:
KATE WINSLET : The Reader - The Double Nominee
PENELOPE CRUZ : Vicky Christina Barcelona - The Early Favorite
VIOLA DAVIS : Doubt - The Scene Stealer
TARAJI P. HENSON : Benjamin Button - The Movie Pushed Me Here Nom.
MARISA TOMEI : The Wrestler - The Stripped with Heart of Gold Nom.
and here are my picks for the rest....
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benj. Button
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Waltz With Bashir
Gomorrah
I've Loved You So Long
The Class
The Baddhar Meinhomph Complex
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Man On Wire
4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days
I.O.U.S.A.
Trouble in the Water
The Journeyman
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Wall-E
Waltz With Bashir
Kung Fu Panda
BEST SONG
The Wrestler
Wall-E
Slumdog Millionaire
Cadillac Records
Gran Torino
BEST SCORE
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Changeling
The Curious Case of BB
Milk
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of BB
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Syndoche, NY
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Wall-E
Milk
The Wrestler
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case of BB
Slumdog Millionaire
Australia
Iron Man
The Dark Knight
BEST COSTUMES
Changeling
Australia
The Curious Case of BB
Revolutionary Road
The Duchess
BEST EDITING
Slumdog Millionaire
The curious Case of BB
Milk
The Dark Knight
Wall-E
BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of BB
Syndoche NY
The Reader
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
SOUND EDITING
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Cloverfield
Iron Man
The Curious Case of BB
SOUND MIXING
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wall-E
The Incredible Hulk
The Curious Case of BB
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of BB
Iron Man
The Dark Knight
Cloverfield
which makes my totals this...
here are the films with 3 or MORE nominations:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 12 nominations
Slumdog Millionaire - 9 nominations
The Dark Knight - 8 nominations
Wall-E - 6 nominations
Milk - 6 nominations
The Wrestler - 4 nominations
Frost/Nixon - 4 nominations
Doubt - 4 nominations
Changeling - 3 nominations
Iron Man - 3 nominations
The Reader - 3 nominations
we will see how right I am tomorrow!
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