Oscar Showdown (Post-Sag)

So the SAG's have thrown a wrench into the awards season. Here is how I see the races at this point ... not to make it a "Dog Fight" as Sean Penn alluded to in his speech. (ugh)

BEST ACTOR



Its still SEAN Vs. MICKEY at this point. And with Sean winning the SAG, the advantage may be pointing towards him. All that is left now is the BAFTA = whoever wins that is the front runner (and I am expecting Rourke to walk away with that one). The only threat is the darkhorse FRANK LANGELLA. If Penn and Rourke split the vote, it leaves a spot open for Mr. President to step in and steal the award.


BEST ACTRESS



This is now a 2 woman race for sure. Anne is out of the running now, and its down to MERYL STREEP Vs. KATE WINSLET. I do not think Kate is a lock at this point, as she is only nominated once, and perhaps for the wrong film, I think Meryl is more respected (and shockingly only has one leading actress Oscar) - and the timing is right. She's won the SAG, the critics award, and tons of respect for her awesome speech. But counting out Winslet is just plain stupid, in many ways this was her year. It will be one of these two ladies.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



the same.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



I almost think this is the award of the night. With Kate Winslet out of the category - it has left the door wide open. PENELOPE CRUZ has been the constant front-runner, however MARISA TOMEI has won the most pre-show accolades. Then there's VIOLA DAVIS, who is the most likely to be a shocker. (For example if Meryl doesnt win lead, they may want to reward Doubt with an acting award - giving it to the fantastic Viola Davis). Counting out TARAJI P. HENSON may also be silly - because out of all of the big Benjamin Button awards - she is the only one with a shot of winning (it wont win best picture, best director, or best actor). If they want to reward it big, they may do it here. She is the longshot, however I think in the end the award will go to CRUZ, TOMEI, or DAVIS.


Its heating up!