Friday, November 21, 2008

End of Nov. Oscar Roundup

So there's been a ton of changes to my Oscar predictions, so here is my list as of now:
(I will continue this up until the Oscar nominees are announced .. my hope is to predict all 5 nominees in the top awards)


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight

The changes here are pretty extensive. I Have moved "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" to number 1 on the list, over "Milk" since last week. The reason being, its is receiving really good early word, and it has an Oscar loved cast (Brad, Cate, Tilda). "Revolutionary Road" is a solid lock for a nomination I'd say. I switched out "Definace" and "Gran Tourino" with "Australia" and "The Dark Knight", which is seeming to be a good shot at the best picture category (for many reasons, most of which come down to how much money it made .. Oscars will want to attract attention this year and have people want to watch. Nominating Dark Knight for best pic will help that). I think "Definace" will just be too small, and "Gran Tourino" will have to wrestle itself with the other Clint Eastwood directed movie "Changeling", and it will probably split votes, therefore not making it into the top 5.


Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Sean Penn - Milk
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Things have changed big time in this category too. Mickey Rourke is drawing career best accolades for his work in "The Wrestler", and the Academy loves a comeback kid (after Rourke has been washed up for a long long time). Added onto that the trailer alone makes his performance look AMAZING! Sean Penn is a lock, just not sure if he is a lock to win, so he dropped down from the top spot. Brad drops down to the bottom of the likely nominees and Frank Langella and Clint Eastwood have been dropped off completely for 2 new choices: Richard Jenkins and Leonardo DiCaprio. I expect Revolutionary Road to be a big hit, and for the academy to notice both leads this time (unlike Titanic where Winslet got the nod and DiCaprio didn't). And the buzz around Richard Jenkins is HUGE, if random.


Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Angelina Jolie - Changeling

These are the same choices before, just in a different order. I still have Scott Thomas in the top spot, because right now she is the most likely winner out of the most intense competition of the night. Anne Hathway is being considered a breakout with this performance, and that helps. Meryl Streep is facing some mixed reviews for Doubt, but I honestly doubt she will not be included. Kate Winslet is looking at double nominations this year, so you have to wonder if she will get 2 nods or if she will only get 1 and be a guaranteed winner. I don't know, but I think she will be able to pull out 2 nominations (but probably no wins). Angelina Jolie drops down because of some negative press about her personally, and because Changeling didn't get the best of reviews, however she received career best reviews for her performance. I still think she will be included, however I think a win from her may be far fetched (damn).


Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin - Milk
Phillip Seymore Hoffman - Doubt
Liev Schrieber - Definace
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder

The thing about this race is, no one but Heath Ledger has a shot of winning. Its his award, the other nominees should just be glad they are nominated. Rather or not he has turned in the best performance, he's going to win. However if there was a threat it would be Josh Brolin, because of a string of great performances not awarded or namoinated by the academy (No Country for Old Men and W come to mind). I've switched out Brad Pitt for "Burn After Reading" with Robert Downey Jr for "Tropic Thunder" because I think he actually has a shot to get in after an outstanding comeback year.


Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Viola Davis - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Amy Adams - Doubt

I have moved Tomei to the top spot because of the buzz on The Wrestler and because she is a past winner who hasn't been nominated since. She's also getting great buzz. Viola Davis is still the probable winner. She only has 3 scenes in Doubt, but is rumored to steal the movie from Meryl Streep, a tough task. Penelope and Kate I think are locks for nominations. Cruz's buzz is seemingly going to stand strong to get her at least a nomination. I have replaced Debra Winger with Amy Adams. I feel that she is the new Academy darling, and she was snubbed last year, and lost when she should have won for "Junebug" I think that locks her in.

Until next time!

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